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Digital Health MedTech

Pharma’s Quantum Bet: Can Qubits Fix Drug R&D’s 90% Failure Rate

The Promise

Pharma spends billions on R&D only to see 90% of drug candidates fail in trials. At the heart of the problem: chemistry is a quantum system, but we’ve been simulating it with classical approximations. Quantum computing, in principle, can simulate molecules and protein folding with physics-native precision, potentially cutting years and billions from discovery pipelines.

The Reality

We are not about to quantum-simulate an entire antibody. Today’s quantum machines remain noisy, small, and fragile. The most credible progress has come from hybrid models, where quantum handles a computational bottleneck and classical HPC does the rest. For example:

  • Cleveland Clinic & IBM: Predicted Zika virus protein fragments more accurately than AlphaFold using a hybrid quantum-classical framework (Cleveland Clinic).
  • Japan Tobacco & D-Wave: Used quantum annealing to train generative AI, producing more “drug-like” molecules than classical methods (MedPath).
  • Biogen & Accenture: Quantum-enabled molecular comparison delivered richer structural insights than classical screening (Accenture).

Each success is narrow, but collectively they show a pragmatic pattern: don’t replace classical, augment it.

The European Edge

Europe is well-positioned. Startups like Pasqal (France) are already running protein hydration analyses on neutral-atom quantum computers (Qubit Pharmaceuticals). The Quantum Technologies Flagship (€1bn over 10 years) funds such projects (EU Commission). Combined with Horizon Europe grants and EuroHPC’s hybrid supercomputers, pharma here has access to sovereign infrastructure and public co-funding that US peers often lack.

Strategic Takeaway

For European pharma and biotech:

  • Think long-term: validated drug design use cases are 5–15 years out (Roche).
  • Back hybrids: near-term ROI lies in workflows where quantum complements AI, not replaces it.
  • Partner early: collaborations with quantum startups and HPC centres are essential to de-risk.

Quantum won’t cure R&D inefficiency overnight. But when 9 in 10 candidates still fail, even a narrow, validated quantum edge could mean the difference between another failed trial and Europe’s next blockbuster drug.

This content has been enhanced with GenAI tools.

By Piotr Wrzosinski

Piotr Wrzosinski is a Pharma and MedTech commercialization and digital marketing expert with 20+ years of experience across pharma (Roche, J&J), consulting (Accenture, IQVIA) and medical devices (BD).
He leads transformative EMEA Omnichannel Delivery Center team at Becton Dickinson and shares insights on Pharma, MedTech and Digital Health at disrupting.healthcare to speed up digital innovation in healthcare, because patients are waiting for it.

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